Thwarting The Democratic Convention Bounce

Depending upon whose weekly polls you believe - Sen. Obama is ahead in the polls anywhere from 3 - 9 percentage points. With the Democratic convention coming up August 25th-28th, the coverage of America's love affair with Sen. Obama will rival Woodstock. Three full days of wall to wall Obama in the newspapers, on TV and on the web. The gap in the polls will widen considerably.
Using history as a guide, the bounce in the polls will be dramatic. When the convention is over and they’re sweeping up the last bits of confetti in Denver, expect upwards of an additional 5-10 percentage point increase in the polls. It’s a fait accompli as evidenced by the past:
· In 1984, after the Democratic Convention, Walter Mondale closed from 19% behind in the polls to within 2 points of Ronald Reagan
· In 1992, 60% of those polled said the Democratic Convention pushed them over the fence to vote the Democratic ticket (Clinton)
· In 2000, The Democratic Convention catapulted VP Gore 16 percentage points - to a 1 point lead over President Bush
· In 2004, President Bush went from a statistical dead heat, 47-46, to a 52-43 lead over John Kerry after the Republican Convention
Here’s how the McCain camp can thwart the convention bounce.
They need to do two things.
· Make Sen. Obama a less acceptable candidate in the eyes of the fence sitters - the somewhat socially liberal but fiscally conservative voting bloc.
· Secondly they need to mobilize the voters within their party, giving them ammunition, via talking points, so that influencers can have intelligent effective conversations with friends, families and associates.
How to do this effectively and efficiently? By leveraging AM Talk Radio – probably the only place you won’t see or hear much about the splendor of the coming Democratic love fest.
Take Rush Limbaugh for example. During any given 15 minutes of the show he has more listeners then the combined circulation of USA Today, The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times… These 4.5 million listeners aren’t stumbling on Rush, they are there for a very specific reason. For a very minimal investment, advertising on Rush will put Sen. McCain’s talking points front and center with politically active listeners thirsty for an opinion.
If they develped a :30 or :60 second campaign with messaging that will mobilize conservatives, influence the politically influential (word of mouth) and persuade Middle Of The Roaders that Sen Obama is the less acceptable candidate, McCain's strategy team should be able to minimize the upcoming convention bounce everyone is anticipating.